Last Sunday I was invited to attend a speech by President Musharraf in New York that he gave to our community. Over 800 Pakistani-Americans had gathered to hear him. Despite the undercooked rice, it was a chance for us to take the measure of a man who has led Pakistan through one of its most critical moments in history. Under a banner that read “Unity Faith Discipline” (rather martial virtues, but to be expected for a general), he addressed the audience.
Musharraf again stated that his policy has been guided by “national interest” only. He condemned the September 11 attack in the strongest terms, and pointed out that about 50 Pakistanis died in that attack. He also assured the community that he brought up the issue of hate crimes in America with President Bush, and asked that those who might have experienced incidents report them to the Pakistani Embassy along with their local law enforcement agencies.
Regarding Afghanistan, Musharraf reiterated that Pakistan would stay in the coalition until the war is over, which looks like we have achieved that. The postwar goals of Pakistan are political and rehabilitative. On the political side, the President said there are four parameters that Pakistan wants to see. First, ensure the unity and stability of Afghanistan and avoid anarchy and atrocities. Second, the next government should be a broad-based multiethnic regime. This means that Pakistan wants the Northern Alliance to share power with Pashtun representatives. Thirdly, it must be friendly to all its neighbors. Pakistan does not want a hostile government on both borders. Finally, there should be no imposed solution from outsiders. It strikes me that these four goals may be contradictory, and not achievable all at the same time.
On the humanitarian side, Musharraf stated that there is a need for both short-term emergency measures, and an effective long-term policy. For the short term, there must be rapid infusion of basic items such as food and blankets so that the Afghans can get through the harsh winter. With the collapse of Taliban resistance across most of the country, that now looks achievable. Aid agencies are reactivating inside the country. In the long run, Afghans need a serious commitment from outsiders to rebuild the country. Right now there is not even a single functioning Afghan bank through which money can be sent into the country. Basic institutions of the modern world do not even exist. Water supplies and road rebuilding are also priority items. The irrigation system of Afghan countryside is in ruins, and has contributed to the collapse of farm output brought on by the drought of the last three years.
At the time of the dinner, Mazar-e-Sharif had fallen, and Taliban forces were falling back. But it came as a surprise to many how quickly the Taliban rule crumbled after that. Within a few days, every major city had fallen and the Taliban were holding out in Kandahar. Their regime is over, just as Musharraf had pronounced last month. When this war started, if someone had predicted that the US would destroy the Taliban in 40 days, with no American combat deaths, and with Afghan civilian casualties of less than 1000 people, he would have been dismissed as a fool.
What this shows is how decisive the selective ability of American airpower has become. The almost exclusive use of guided bombs allowed the American military to hollow out the Taliban without leveling Afghani cities. When the Northern Alliance then launched a real attack, the Taliban had no capacity left to resist, and they essentially collapsed overnight. America dropped about 10,000 tons of bombs during this campaign, which compares to about 85,000 tons dropped in the Gulf War. It was in fact a highly selective and amazingly effective display of modern combat power. The gap between America and the rest of the world’s military is larger than it has ever been.
For the Afghanis, as my Afghani sister-in-law tells me, the events of the last week were a true liberation from a despotic and medieval regime. In reality, the Taliban were drug dealers and religious fanatics whose demise should be celebrated by every Muslim around the world. The key test is putting a stable Afghanistan back together, a result that will be in Pakistan’s best interest, and the rest of the world for that matter.