As the war in Afghanistan grinds on, it is becoming clearer that the winners and losers, in a geopolitical sense, are turning out to be different than anyone imagined back on the morning of September 11.
Winner: George W. Bush. He has done a credible job all around and enjoys tremendously high marks with the American people. His approval rating is over 80%, and almost as high as his father’s was after he had won the Gulf War. Of course, Bush’s popularity could plummet if the war goes poorly.
Winner: Pakistan. This is probably the most surprising. Financially Pakistan has done extremely well. All of the sanctions have been lifted, the aid flows are being restored at highly concessional rates, and most importantly, increased access to US and EU markets for Pakistani exports have been extended. Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz has been welcomed with open arms both in Washington and in the multilateral institutions (IMF, World Bank). A new IMF loan to assist in banking reform is in the works. The excellent economic policies of Aziz will allow this aid to have the maximal impact on the economy and Pakistan can embark on a decade of strong growth that will transform the country. Pakistan has the potential to join the ranks of the middle income countries if it can generate 7% growth per year for the next 10-15 years. This will allow the creation of a strong middle class, which is the essential basis of the true democracy that we have all hoped would take root in Pakistan. It really only will take another decade as long as good policy is followed.
Along with economic benefits, this war has great political benefits for the country. It will be the end of the dark road of religious extremism that some have tried to make Pakistan travel down for the last 15 years. With the end of the Taliban, the major source of inspiration for these movements will be gone. In addition, the government will finally be able to impose order on the religious groups, particularly by forcing the madrasahs to offer real education or close up. The army too has made a strong decision to back Islamic moderation as witnessed by the reshuffle ordered by Musharraf.
Winner: Islam. By this I mean true Islam. Islam has won in two ways. In America, the awareness of Islam and Muslims has taken a quantum leap forward, as has the desire by Americans to know more about the religion. American Muslim leaders have gotten more media time than we could have ever imagined in our wildest dreams. Despite the small number of hate crimes across the nation, most Americans have been very supportive of their Muslim fellow citizens, and we should be thankful for that.
True Islam has also won around the world. True Islam, the religion of peace and brotherhood, has been twisted into a call for violence, suicide bombings, and sectarian attacks that have done nothing for Islam but besmirched its good name. With his several hundred million dollars Osama Bin Laden could have built several world class universities, which is what he would have done if he was a true Muslim. Given the obvious horror of September 11, it will finally embolden those of us who have watched our religion hijacked by the extremists to stand up and take it back.
Loser: India. India has been playing every diplomatic card in the deck for the last several years to tear apart the last remnants of the US-Pakistani relationship and create a new reality. This strategy now lies in ruins. India instead has to deal with Colin Powell, who stated that the Kashmir issue should be decided in accordance with the wishes of the Kashmiri people.
Loser: Israel’s Right Wing. Many Muslims felt the attack would help Israel’s government, but as time passes it becomes clearer that the opposite is the case. George Bush and Tony Blair have both unequivocally stated their support for a Palestinian state in the last 10 days. Bush has been telling the Israelis there is no “Green Light” to attack the Palestinians, and it is obvious that Bush would like to settle the conflict as quickly as possible. America is realizing that needlessly antagonizing the Arab countries so that Sharon can confiscate land and build settlements is hurting America’s national interest in the region and the world. It is up to the Palestinians to seize this golden opportunity.
Unknown: Afghanistan. This remains a puzzle. The moral standing of the American war cannot be fully judged without knowing the consequences for the Afghanis. If a stable Afghanistan can be created, then the biggest winners of September 11 will be the most wretched inhabitants of this landlocked country. And that will be the supreme irony of the deadly suicide attacks.