The air war is now almost 2 weeks old, and America is unsure of its strategy going forward. The goal remains the removal of the Taliban and the destruction of Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda network. However, to achieve this political goal requires a military strategy that is appropriate.
The first week of the air campaign focused on Taliban air defense capability and destroyed radar, aircraft, and airfields. In addition, anti-aircraft missile batteries were targeted. This allowed American aircraft to fly during the day and at low altitude, as they no longer had to fear the Taliban air defenses. These initial strikes utilized long range heavy bombers as they focused mostly on fixed sites that could be attacked from high altitude with guided bombs.
In the second week of bombing, the United States switched to mostly strike aircraft such as F-18 fighter-bombers flying off of its three aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea. These aircraft are more maneuverable and fly low seeking targets of opportunity. Often the pilot will identify a possible target, radio in a request to attack, and then attack only after permission has been granted. The main deficiency of these aircraft is that they carry small bomb loads.
The initial American hope was that air bombardment would break the will of the Taliban and result in their collapse through defection. This has not happened, mainly because there is no credible Pashtun opposition to defect to, and the Taliban for the most part will not defect to the non-Pashtun Northern Alliance. Now America faces a difficult choice. It must dislodge the Taliban through some kind of ground assault, but the question is how to do it.
One option is to arm the Northern Alliance and give it a battlefield edge by providing close air assault on Taliban positions in the frontlines. American Special Forces could be sent in to assist with targeting information for the aircraft. Such a strategy would likely succeed in a military sense rather rapidly. Already, Northern forces are massing to take Mazar-e-Sharif, which is the key to the northern third of Afghanistan. They are relying on American air support to help them blast their way in.
The problem with the Northern Alliance is political. The Pashtun majority will not accept them as a legitimate government, and so by themselves they cannot create a stable Afghanistan. Pakistan, America’s key ally in this mess, despises the Northern Alliance and has made it clear that a total victory for them is unacceptable. America has therefore had to support them without giving them a decisive edge.
If not the Northern Alliance, then a southern strategy focusing on disgruntled Pashtun elements opposed to the Taliban could be the other way into Kabul. This also is hard to realize, as the Pashtuns appear to be rallying to the Taliban out of ethnic solidarity. To build a Pashtun force cohesive enough to carry out a war against the Taliban could take months.
Unfortunately, America does not have months. The constant bombing, with its inevitable civilian casualties, will eventually fray and break the thin ropes holding together this coalition of Western and Muslim countries. There is a limit to how long it can go on. Secondly, the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan will worsen into a disaster soon. Afghanistan needs 50,000 tons of relief aid per month to feed itself, much of it ironically supplied by America. Right now with the war, shipments are only about 1000 tons per day. Mass starvation will not be acceptable from the standpoint of Muslim and world opinion, and the American government knows it.
This may well lead to the third option, the use of American ground troops. This strategy, especially if US forces are used to seize Kabul itself, will likely result in significant American and Afghan casualties. And even after taking Kabul, the Taliban will still be standing in their scattered bases, and Osama Bin Laden will remain well hidden. To get US soldiers to the battlefield will probably require the capture of an airport by the Northern Alliance or US forces flown in by helicopter, then further American reinforcements can be brought in by transport plane. Interestingly, a fourth American carrier has entered the Arabian Sea, but it offloaded its planes in Japan, and filled its hangar with helicopters and marines.