Pakistan’s government got access to much of the US intelligence data linking Bin Laden to the terror attacks, and the Foreign Minister essentially stated that it was convincing. With that, the last nail in Bin Laden’s coffin was delivered. Pakistan’s government wants the US to make the evidence public, and hopefully Bush will do so, as this will make it easier for Musharraf to convince the average Pakistani that he is doing not just what is politically expedient but also morally right.
Musharraf continues to handle the situation quite well. By allowing the fundamentalists to hold their small rallies and demonstrations he is giving them a chance to blow off steam, and to see for themselves that the nation is not with them. Outside of Quetta and Peshawar on the frontier there has been little support for the Taliban. In addition, Musharraf has recognized that Pakistan needs to play a constructive role in ensuring that the next Afghan regime is not hostile. His invitation to the deposed Afghan king to send a representative to Islamabad was prudent.
The United States has been very forthcoming to Pakistan. Most of the sanctions have already been lifted. The last set of democracy related sanctions will probably be lifted in the next 2 weeks. In addition, the Senate is moving ahead with a 600 million dollar aid package for Pakistan. In addition to having loans rescheduled, this will make a significant difference to the economy. A stabilization of the economy and return to rapid growth with investor confidence is what the government is hoping for. Shaukat Aziz, the Finance Minister, probably can’t believe his good luck. The key is that the country comes out of this crisis in a stable environment, without a major civil disturbance. The US is aware of Pakistan’s fragile polity, and this explains why they are trying hard not to put large American military forces on Pakistani soil, although certainly Special Forces are operating already from Pakistan.
The next move in Afghanistan may come very soon. The timetable is constrained for the US by several factors. Ramadan starts in mid-November, and the US would not like to be seen involved in a major military action during that month. After Ramadan, the weather will turn bad and stay poor until April. Waiting that long to take out the Taliban is probably not desirable for Bush from a domestic point of view. In addition, there is a looming humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan. Several million Afghans depended on foreign food aid before this crisis, but the aid agencies pulled out after September 11. There is the possibility of mass starvation in regions of Afghanistan. Bush just announced a 350 million-dollar humanitarian aid package for the Afghans, which will keep them fed through the winter, the only hitch being how to get the food to them. It can’t be sent to the Taliban, as they will just use it for their armed forces. There is some talk of airdrops, although that would expose US transport planes to Taliban anti-aircraft fire. These factors will push the US to destroy the Taliban sooner rather than later. As such, it is possible that war may start by middle October.
If the US goes to the attack, they will probably rely heavily on the Northern Alliance forces. These forces are preparing to attack the Taliban, and given the support of US airpower, would probably roll through to Kabul and Kandahar in a few weeks. For Pakistan this is a bit of a problem, as the Northern Alliance was defeated by the Taliban with Pakistani support. Musharraf has reacted to this realignment rather deftly. He announced that the Taliban’s days are numbered, which is a clear renunciation of Pakistan’s previous alliance with them, and Musharraf is open to a new dispensation in Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance, as it is made up of the northern ethnic communities and does not have a Pashtun element, will be hard pressed to create a stable government. A Loya Jirga, or council of elders, comprising all of the Afghani society and presided over by the old King Zahir Shah, may be convened after the war to write a constitution and choose a government.
Afghanistan in no way presents a threat to Pakistan. They have a 3 billion dollar economy, which is tiny compared to Pakistan’s 65 billion dollars. A peaceful Afghanistan will be a boon for Pakistan as the nefarious influence of the Taliban on Pakistani society will stop, especially its encouragement of sectarian extremists. Finally, if peace does come, Pakistan can open up a real connection to Central Asia. Karachi could become the main port for that entire region, including oil export shipments.