Taliban Victorious Four years after entering Kabul, the Taliban movement is stretching forward to final victory over all of Afghanistan. Afghanistan has not had a year of peace since the late 1970’s, before the communists came to power and civil war began. The now defunct Soviet Union sent in its army in order to prop up the teetering Afghan communists at the end of 1979, just as Iran’s new revolutionary government was taking hold and the American embassy staff was being held hostage.
Pakistan, at the time under the military government of Zia-ul-Huq, forged a strong relationship with the Reagan administration to support a guerrilla war against the Soviet forces in Afghanistan. This successful strategy resulted in an eventual Soviet withdrawal in 1988. For Pakistan, it gave the military access to modern American weapons, including a fleet of F-16 fighter planes that still form the core of the Pakistani Air Force. More importantly, it created a highly effective group, the Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI, which gained skill in organizing and supporting guerrilla war. The ISI turned those skills toward Kashmir in the 1990’s. While Pakistani support remained crucial for the war against the Soviet Union, the American governments also were willing to ignore Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions.
After the Soviet withdrawal, a puppet communist regime remained in power in Kabul for several years. US interest in Afghanistan waned rapidly, and Pakistan was unsure how to proceed. The various factions that had united against the Soviets now fell out among themselves as warlords seized local power. The bloodshed continued unabated even after the Kabul communist government fell. Meanwhile, a generation of young boys, mostly Pashtun, educated in religious schools and fired with crude notions of Islamic purity came to be formed. In response to one local outrage in southern Afghanistan by a warlord that had raped and killed some women, a mullah organized the boys and set out to restore some sense of order.
They killed the warlord and quickly attracted a mass following. Quite rapidly this student movement swept southern Afghanistan and came to be known as the Taliban. In 1996 they entered Kabul but have been stymied by resistance in the northern areas of Afghanistan. The Shia city of Mazar-e-Sharif fell to the Taliban in 1997 where they proceeded to brutally massacre about 5000 men and boys.
The opposition to the Taliban is headed by General Ahmed Shah Massoud, a wily veteran of the war against the Soviets and considered by many among the greatest guerrilla warriors of the 20th century. For years he has held together those opposed to the Taliban. But in the last few weeks, his forces have suffered critical losses. The Afghan civil war does not exist in a vacuum; it is the scene of a struggle for domination between Pakistan on one side, and Russia/India/Iran on the other. Russia, which has a military presence in Tajikistan (borders Afghanistan to the north), does not want a hostile power to dominate that border. Iran is very wary of the Sunni Taliban, and their massacre of the Shia Hazaris also took the lives of several Iranian diplomats in that city. India of course wishes to prevent Pakistani domination of Afghanistan.
With 95% of Afghanistan under their control, and with the opposition now cut off from their supply lines to Russia and Iran, it looks like the Taliban will achieve final victory perhaps even this winter. Behind this victory lies a deliberate policy choice of the Pakistani government. Without active and ongoing support from Pakistan, the Taliban would not be able to carry out these offensives. For the last 5 years, support of the Taliban has been a consistent element of Pakistani foreign policy in all 3 governments.
The next step for the Taliban is to obtain recognition from the world. Only the Saudis, UAE, and Pakistan have recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. Even the UN seat for Afghanistan is still held by the previous power in Kabul before the Taliban came.
Why does the rest of the world refuse to recognize the reality of the Taliban? Mainly because most of the world finds their behavior so repulsive that no one wants to give them any sense of legitimacy. Their treatment of women is a crude mockery of even conservative Islam with a ban on female education and work. This medieval attitude is disgusting and embarrassing for most Muslims. The government’s major source of funds is heroin exports, as Afghanistan is now the largest source of heroin in the world. One can hardly blame the farmers who are trying to make a living, but the government is engaged in trafficking in a substance that is un-Islamic to say the least. The Taliban recently “banned” poppy cultivation, but this is just for show, as any serious attempt to enforce this would bankrupt their government.
Finally, they have given refuge to Osama bin Laden, the Saudi who is accused of masterminding the bombings at American embassies in Tanzania and Kenya. Over 250 people were killed in those attacks, and the vast majority were local citizens who happened to be passing by. Osama’s henchmen have been arrested and tried, or are under arrest warrant, for terrorism in several Muslim countries, including Jordan and Mauritania. In an interview, Osama did not admit responsibility for the bombings, but vigorously approved of the bombings themselves. The Taliban claim that they are preventing Osama from doing anything more, but refuse to extradite him to the United States, Tanzania, or anywhere else he is wanted.
Pakistan has made a choice that the Taliban are better than the chaos that existed before. With the Taliban consolidating power, it looks like they will be neighbors for many years to come. My fear for Pakistan is that the influence may now run more strongly in the other direction, as misguided and harmful ideas of Islam, sectarian violence, and female education filter into and influence Pakistanis. If we wish to enter the 21st century as a modern, educated, peaceful, and drug-free state, we are not going to get any help from our neighbor, and we are the ones who sold him the house.
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