In baseball, three strikes and you are out. With President Khatami’s overwhelming landslide reelection in Iran, the mullah-dominated system just took its fourth strike, and whether it is headed out is the question. Over the last four years, the people of Iran have gone to nationwide polls four times. The first was Khatami’s first election, then followed municipal elections, and last year came parliamentary (Iran’s Majlis) elections, followed by Khatami’s win running for his second term this year. In all four elections, those representing the conservative mullahs that have run the country since the revolution have been repeatedly pummeled. Khatami won his recent election with an unheard of 77% of the vote, a fraction usually seen only in the rigged elections of dictatorships like Syria or the old Soviet Union. For a free electorate to generate such a lopsided win shows clearly the fundamental rejection of the clerical control of society.
Shiite Iran toppled the Shah in 1979 in a bloody and protracted revolution that left 30,000 Iranians dead. The Shah was replaced with a hybrid Islamic State. As no such state had existed in modern times, the Iranians started from scratch. To reconcile notions of democracy and institutional government along with Islamic rule, they came up with a contradictory system. On the one hand was created a Republican form of government similar to the United States, with a directly elected President serving for up to two four-year terms and an elected Parliament with power to make law. They also created a Council of Guardians made up of mullahs, who could reject new laws as un-Islamic. Finally, there was the position of “Supreme Leader”, who is not elected but appointed by the Guardian Council, serves a life term, and has control of the military, police, television, and judiciary. The unelected Supreme Leader is far more powerful than the elected President.
The original Supreme Leader was the Ayatollah Khomeini, who came up with the notion that the most learned ulema should be in charge of the country (Velayat-e-Faqih). After his death, Ayatollah Khamenei was given the post. Meanwhile, Iran has changed tremendously, and most Iranians today have little or no memory of the Shah. For the vast majority, and particularly among the educated youth, there is complete disaffection from the mullah-dominated system.
President Khatami, and the reformist Parliament voted in last year, have tried to reform and open up Iran’s society. They have been fought every step of the way by the conservatives who see the reformers as enemies of the state and of Islam. The election results show quite clearly that the people are with reform, and the conservatives are trying to hold back the sea. Reformist Member of Parliament Ali Shakourirad noted that, “People voted again for reforms with awareness. They made it clear exactly what course they want for the country. The people are demanding that opponents of reforms stop their opposition and let Khatami do his job.”
Whether that will happen remains to be seen. The Guardian Council has rejected and nullified every reformist piece of legislation passed by the new Parliament in the last year, while the courts have closed over 30 reformist newspapers and thrown even government ministers in jail. Hadi Semati, a Teheran University Professor aligned with the reformers noted that reform progress “is still going to be bumpy and slow. They are going to continue arresting people and shutting down newspapers.”
President Khatami and the reformers have both time and the people on their side. The conservatives control the levers of state powers, with their firm grip on the courts and police. This imbalance of moral and real power may lead to a showdown, as neither side looks like they plan to capitulate and abandon their desires and principles. I can only hope that the showdown is far less bloody than the last time the Iranian people became fed up with the powers that be.