In a stunning move, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has decided to extend a formal invitation to Pakistan’s Chief Executive Pervez Musharraf. To say this was unexpected is an understatement. At the same time, India has decided to abandon its so-called cease-fire in Kashmir that it entered unilaterally before last Ramadan.
The end of the cease-fire doesn’t actually mean anything. The fighting in Kashmir has raged just as intently in the last few months, although supposedly the Indians were not trying to stop and assault guerrillas on the move across the Line of Control from Pakistan. The cease-fire was mostly a public relations ploy of no significance, and its passing does not change any ground realities.
What is interesting is that the BJP is willing to talk face to face with the architect of the Kargil incursion, without preconditions. Ashraf Qazi, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India, stated, “Pakistan has always asked for talks anytime, anywhere…without preconditions. In this regard, this is a very constructive move.” For two nuclear-armed states that view each other as hostile powers, this is certainly true.
For Kashmiris this may be the best chance they have ever had of real negotiation between Pakistan and India with regards to that tortured Vale. In the past, a treaty between the PPP and Congress for example could be viewed as a sellout by the respective conservative forces in each country, namely Pakistan’s military and India’s BJP. But now, with the head of these two forces talking, any agreement reached will automatically pass muster back home. This gives both leaders the comfort of knowing that they will not be declared traitors to the cause if they engage in a compromise, which of course has to be the end result of any fruitful negotiation.
The next step will be a face to face meeting of the leaders, a sub-continental summit. What will they talk about? Kashmir, of course. But nuclear issues should merit serious attention. Creation of a stable hot line between the two leaders and a negotiation on ground rules for routine military exercises should be on the agenda. The recent wargames run by India near the border were unnecessarily provocative.
One concept that may be helpful is for both sides to decouple Kashmir from the rest of the Indo-Pak relationship. This would require a level of maturity and goodwill that may be missing, but there are so many areas in which useful cooperation, such as the desire by Iran to build a gas pipeline through Pakistan to India, could be valuable to both impoverished nations.
This has to be a particularly satisfying moment for Musharraf. If this is the beginning of the end of the Indo-Pak conflict, and we may not know the answer to that for several years, then Musharraf deserves credit for his handling of Pakistan’s foreign policy.
On the other hand, the unexpected move from Vajpayee begs the question: why now? Certainly the failure of India’s attempt to pacify Kashmir by military force is part of it. Also, the growing perception in India that Musharraf is a serious fellow with whom one can negotiate helps. Compare Musharraf’s demeanor and sense of purpose to the self-important preening of Nawaz Sharif. But the real catalyst is that the recent state elections in India put the fear of God (or Gods I guess, if you are a Hindu) in them, as Congress and its allies came back from the dead to rout the BJP. The BJP knows it has to start accomplishing something or it will lose power at the Federal level. You can’t detonate nuclear devices every other week to whip up public support, at some point you have to have something real to show. An improvement in relations with Pakistan and progress on Kashmir could be such an accomplishment.
The APHC, the umbrella organization of the Kashmiri guerrillas, still wants to have three-way talks with India and Pakistan both at the table. India has so far refused this, but inviting Musharraf means they are willing to discuss Kashmir directly with Pakistan. If the three-way talks do eventually occur, then we may be on the road to South Asian peace.