Islam is the world’s second largest religion. That is remarkable in itself, but what is even more amazing is how rapidly it is growing. The major source of this growth is population increase, as the Muslim world has undergone a huge population explosion, one that will not fully end for another 50 to 60 years.
The entire world has seen a tremendous rise in human population, with the total global numbers jumping from 1.5 billion a century ago to 6 billion today. Growth peaked in percentage terms in the 1960s, but in absolute terms it peaked in the late 1980s when the world was adding almost 90 million people a year to its total. The main reason for this tremendous surge in our numbers is not that humans suddenly started “breeding like rabbits” but rather because we stopped “dying like flies”.
In the pre-modern world, life was harsh and short. 30% of infants and toddlers died before their 5th birthday, and life expectancy was about 35 years on an average. With access to clean water, better nutrition, vaccination and public health measures, and antibiotics, human life expectancy surged and population growth took off. This occurred even while women steadily reduced the average number of babies they bore during their lifetime. In society after society, nations transitioned from a high death rate and high birth rate pattern to a low death rate and low birth rate pattern. In between, there was always a population boom.
For Europe and America, the boom was slower but longer lasting. By 1900, there were so many Westerners that they made up over 30% of the entire world’s population. Christians totaled about 35% of humanity, while Muslims accounted for about 12%, and only 180 million Muslims totaled in the world.
But in the last century, Muslim populations expanded very rapidly. From making up only 12% of the world, we now are 20% and rising rapidly. Christians account for about 30%. The largest Muslim countries (with population in millions) are Indonesia (181), Pakistan (140), India (125), Bangladesh (115), Turkey (66), Egypt (66), and Nigeria (63). The overall world total is about 1.3 billion Muslims. Several million Muslims live in North America and Europe, most are immigrants but there are a growing number of converts.
In the next 50 years or so the worldwide population boom is going to end as birthrates continue to fall. Already half the world lives in countries where the average birthrate per woman is less than the 2.1 babies needed to keep population numbers stable over the long run. Some countries such as Russia and Rumania are facing declines in their population. This is not a problem in the Muslim world as the population boom still has a fairly large head of steam behind it. However, even some Muslim countries that have instituted aggressive birth control programs saw fewer babies born in the 1990s than in the 1980s, which is remarkable.
The overall consequences of these trends are fairly easy to project, although there is obviously some room for error as these are based on predictions about fertility and life expectancy changes in the next fifty years. The UN predicts world population will likely hit 9 billion by 2050, but will not go much higher before starting to decline. For the Muslim world, the numbers will more than double to approximate 2.7 billion, and will be just about the same as Christian numbers. In 150 years, Muslims will have increased from 180 million to 2.7 billion. The largest Muslim countries will be Indonesia (290), Pakistan (270), India (220), Nigeria (200), Bangladesh (200), Egypt (113), Iran (100), Saudi Arabia (90), Turkey (85), Yemen (70), and Afghanistan (70).
But population will not be the same as importance. What will make these countries, and the Muslim world, matter, is economics. If they are able to create productive advanced economies and stable democratic governments, then their populations will have the influence their numbers would warrant. If they remain mired in backwardness, then they would still be impotent actors in the world.
The key to economic success for nations is no different than for communities or individuals. It is education plus hard work plus entrepreneurial spirit. These are the elements that allow us to individually succeed in America, and these elements will allow the Muslim world to succeed as a whole. Muslim countries must pour resources into proper education of the entire population, and provide a free economy where people could create businesses and jobs. Let their people do the rest.