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Unpredictable Times
The late Lee Atwater, widely regarded as one of America’s most brilliant political strategists, once observed that a winning electoral campaign is marked by a series of defining events along the path to victory. For Pakistan’s October polls, these defining moments generally are playing out at the local level, all but invisible to the country as a whole. There is almost a total absence of a countrywide campaign, the focus being on individual constituencies and races. No national issue has galvanized the voters, and Tip O’Neill’s famous words that “all politics is local” may turn out to be true in the case of Pakistan’s Elections 2002.
This year’s election campaigns lack the tempo, gusto and zest of the past. Voters fear a return to the political squabbling characteristic of previous polls. The approach this time around seems to be more conservative and attuned to stability and security concerns.
Having undergone considerable strife and stress since 9/11, many voters are not in the mood for vitriol, vituperative jargon, and harsh personal attacks. The concern is that they may also not be in the mood to vote. Since 1985, five elections have been held, and voter turnout has consistently decreased - from a high of 52% in 1985, to a low of 36% in 1997. On October 10, voter turnout will be the key. More to the point, whosoever is successful in transporting voters to the polling booths on election day shall more likely than not have his cake and eat it too.
But there is a caveat. Buried deep beneath the ostensibly quiet surface is a subdued fury over existing domestic inequities with a surrounding environment made combustible by US unilateralism. Hovering over the political horizon is Iraq. An attack on Iraq could flare up simmering elements. The recent killings of Christians in Karachi and the shooting of Hindus in a temple in Gujarat are disquieting portents.
2002 is showing an accelerating cycle of violence. The confluence of flashpoints in South Asia and the Middle East may prove to be a bridge too far for the region.
Elections in Pakistan have often sprung surprises. This is a moment in history when the only thing that can be said with some certainty is that times are going to be unpredictable.
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