Instead of the anticipated “shock and awe” to potential terrorists in the aftermath of Iraq’s takeover, a virus of violence is spreading to countries seen as US allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Morocco. Compounding the matter are renewed suicide attacks in Israel. All of this suggests that, following the de facto colonization of Iraq, the situation is turning from bad to worse.
As warned in these columns, violence begets violence. This time around, it has assumed a deadly shape in that Arab allies of the West are being targeted. What has emerged represents a new lethal dimension and potentially a tremendous escalation. On May 21, al-Jazeera Television broadcast an audiotape said to be the voice of Ayman Zawahiri, a physician who founded Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which merged with Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda. The audiotape condemns Arab countries that supported the US in its war against Iraq. And Osama bin Laden, in another audiotape broadcast in February, explicitly named Morocco, along with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Yemen, and Pakistan, as “oppressive, unjust, apostate ruling governments” that have been “enslaved by America” and are worthy of “liberation”. It is bad news for those Muslim countries seen as friends of Western powers. Affiliation with the West was supposed to offer security. Now it seems to be a basis of vulnerability.
At the same time, the Bush administration - fearing that the US will be branded as an imperialist power in the Middle East - is pushing for a greatly diminished presence in Iraq, proposing to downsize US forces there from the current 130,000 to 30,000 by the fall. However, despite the planned withdrawal of a significant number of US troops, it is unlikely that America will not continue to be seen as an occupying power. Three additional flaws in the US thinking come to mind:
• America, unsuccessful thus far in its efforts to get Israel to accept its roadmap for peace, is likely to ignore the centrality of the core Palestinian problem while focusing only on ceasing hostilities and the formation of a Palestinian state.
• America continues to fail to grasp that its current preemptive philosophy of raw force to subjugate imagined, real, or anticipated enemies is not paying off.
• America has only served to reinforce the iron grip of special interest forces in its polity, pointing out the weakness of the US system where narrowly focused vested interests can virtually enjoy a free ride at the expense of the public interest and even vital American concerns.
In the present context, what can be done? The first step for the Muslim world should be to develop a collective and coordinated strategy. The Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) is scheduled to convene in September 2003 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Thus far a largely ineffective body, there is a window of opportunity presented to the OIC to become relevant and a force in advocating issues of critical importance to Muslim nations.
The second step is to build alliances. Muslim masses from Morocco to Indonesia had a consensus opinion against the invasion of Iraq. Significantly also, European nations divided on this issue and huge rallies were held in many European cities against military action in Iraq. Even today, the US continues to punish France for its anti-war stance, the Pentagon reportedly “on its own private vendetta” against that country. This convergence of views should be exploited, not ignored.
What is required is a new balance. After the collapse of the USSR, the world is indulging in more violent wars with unchallenged American writ. An understanding between the Muslim world and Europe may be the beginning of some counter balance on the unchecked use of American military power. If not, the lethality of attacks across the world may be enhanced. Already, the situation is slipping and the virus of violence spreading. It is insufficient to address the symptoms of violence while proportionately ignoring the causes that breed it. If there ever was a need to reconsider US policy in the Middle East, it is now.
