The cacophony in the international media denigrating the recent army take over in Pakistan and advocating an early return to democracy contrasts sharply with the overwhelming welcome accorded by the people of that country to the bloodless coup. Gallup polls show that over 75 per cent of the people endorse the army action. There has been no notable protest.

The sad state of affairs in the country had dictated a change. The damage done to almost all institutions of the state had taken the polity so far away from democracy that the two were almost living apart. Unfortunately, that is not generally realized abroad.

Nawaz Sharif’s lust for concentrating power and his “vaulting ambition, which over-leapt itself”(Shakespeare) had led him to plot and engineer against the institutional solidarity of the army too. The scheme cooked up by him and his cabal in Abu Dhabi backfired, proving the veracity of a Chinese saying: “It is indiscreet for a rat to gnaw at a tiger’s tail”. The pain of being a rat -that too without the basic cunning of a rat- was perhaps dulled by the anesthetic of regular flattery of his cohorts who made him see himself through a magnifying glass that made him look bigger than a tiger.

The dramatic developments, over and at Karachi airport on the evening of October 12, portray the reactive nature of the take over rather than a change by design like some earlier coups. This too swung public opinion in favor of Gen. Musharraf, the army chief. He does not have now to seek the support of any political group, as Gen. Zia had to do, in order to sustain himself in the seat of power. He carries enough public goodwill with him owing mainly to the follies and frailties of both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir.

The loudest protest against the change has come from Britain: but, it was a British poet and thinker, Alexander Pope, who had said:

For forms of government let fools contest,

Whatever is best administered is best.

Pakistan’s poet, philosopher, Allama Iqbal, has this to say:

Gurez az tarz-i-jamhuri, ghulam-i-Pukhtakari shau

Kay dar maghaz-i-du sad khar fikr-i-insani na mi gunjad

(Beware of the system of democracy and follow the lead of a man of ripe experience. For the brains of 200 donkeys cannot produce the thoughts of a single human mind.)

If the regime has to avoid degenerating into a usual type of military government interested in staying in power, it will have to take palpable and result-oriented measures to revive the economy and deliver on its promise of accountability irrespective of the political and social standings of the culprits. International acceptability will also be in direct proportion to its success in pulling the economy out of the quagmire, in an across the board accountability and in setting the stage for a transparent, corruption-free and efficient management of the state affairs. Indeed, nothing succeeds like success.

More than a decade of rampant corruption and mismanagement under both Benazir and Nawaz Sharif, one trying to surpass the other, has indebted the country to the extent of 100 per cent of its GDP! Over 90 percent of tax revenues go towards debt servicing. Expenses on defense and civil administration have also to be financed, at least partially, through loans. What an ugly and loathsome economy the military leadership has inherited!

Gen. Musharraf and his team will have to break the existing fiscal mould and take some very unpopular and unpleasant decisions. These may be unpalatable for the tax-dodging, loan-defaulting elite, but the people at large will welcome them whole-heartedly.

As for the recovery of the bad debts, Gen. Musharraf has already moved decisively and quickly against the loan defaulters. He has given them four weeks to pay back their debts.

Defaulted loans are in the range of Rs.200 billion. Of these, the biggest chunk of Rs.160 billion is owed to the public sector banks, as they have been vulnerable to political influence. That the loans were given under political pressure is also borne out by the fact that only 12 percent of the loans fall in the category of defaulted loans of less than Rs. 1 million. Bad debts of Rs. 30 million and over are 70 per cent of the total. The big defaulters are thus fewer in number but they hold by far the larger portion of the total unpaid loans. Their political influence made them get away with such day light bank robberies. This was crony capitalism at its worst.

Up-to-date lists of persons who have defaulted on loans are already available with the State Bank. The assets of the defaulters and those of their dependents too are not hidden from the banking authorities. Recovery should therefore pose not many problems.

A distinction need, however, be made between will-full defaulters, who had squeezed the money out of the banks through political pressure, and those traders and industrialists who are genuinely unable to pay back due mainly to changing government policies and adverse economic conditions. Such genuine parties must be given time to pay back their loans so that their industries and businesses do not go out of commission. Taking over their industries and businesses would be no less a folly than the senior Bhutto’s nationalization policy in the name of social justice but calculated to eliminate the growing influence of the business and industrial magnates vis-à-vis the feudal lords.

Unfortunately for Pakistan, all leaders have, from day one, talked about land reforms but the measures taken by them have only touched the surface, did a cosmetic surgery at best, and kept loop holes available for the feudal lords to retain their holdings. Just one Wadera, G.M. Mehr, is reported to own 100,000 acres!

Senator Saifur Rehman epitomizes the will-full defaulters. He had borrowed no less than Rs.920 million from the UBL for his Redco industries and had been dodging repayments to the bank on one pretext or another. He has now come out with the offer to pay back bulk of this loan. He knew he could not get away this time.

The people have welcomed the army take over in the hope that it would set into motion a process of impartial and transparent accountability so that the people who played havoc with public money and resources are punished for their evil deeds. Corruption has so permeated the society that it has virtually become a way of life. Bold and unflinching measures are required to put the process of corruption on retreat.

A major problem of the economy is the meager revenue collection. To begin with, a healthy tax culture has yet to develop in the country; every one tries to dodge or bribe the tax collector. No wonder half of revenue goes into the pockets of the concerned tax officials. Then, the laws are so framed that the richest pay no tax, the middle class pays some tax and the poor pay bulk of the taxes –indirect of course. The country is not short of money; only, a good portion of it is in circulation in the gray or informal economy. If this could be brought into the taxation net, the country’s dependence on borrowing will be considerably reduced. This has become a necessity now that foreign sources of borrowing have virtually dried up.

The Central Board of Revenue is said to have a list of 5,000 persons and companies who have evaded Rs.15 billion as tax.

There are over a hundred -103 to be exact- federal, provincial, and local taxes in the country. These provide as many opportunities for corruption to as many taxation pyramids. Gen. Musharraf has spoken of pragmatic tax reforms. The earlier these pyramids and bribe-yielding structures are demolished the better it would be for national economy. Some work, it is reported, has already been done by a judicial committee under a High Court judge. Quick decisions can perhaps be taken now brushing aside the vested interests in maintaining the status quo.

The Governor of State Bank of Pakistan has been repeatedly asking for the restructuring of the economy. Subjective considerations on the part of succeeding governments have delayed action on his recommendations. The military government is now in a position to have the recommendations examined by a panel of economists so that pragmatic steps are taken for the revival of the economy particularly the industrial sector. Such a panel may also recommend the measures that need be taken to deal with the bane of feudalism. As for the defense expenditure, who will be better qualified to cut out the frills, wastage and redundancy than the army leadership itself.

One hopes that the forthright General lives up to his reputation of courage and introduces basic reforms to enthuse a despondent society following the example of his hero –Kemal Ataturk..