Iran Reforms
Nayyer Ali, MD

Twenty-one years after the Iranian Revolution, the final significance of that event may be coming into focus. Iran’s new Majlis (Parliament) was seated this last week. This Majlis is almost completely different from the previous one, with 80% of the members being entirely new. A new generation of Iranian youth, many of whom have no memory of the Shah, voted in this Majlis in a landslide for reform.

Iran revolted in the 1970’s against the corruption and decadence of the Shah’s rule, and handed power to a Shiite clergy that created a hybrid political system. With the goal of creating a true Islamic state, power was concentrated in the figure of the Supreme Leader, who was of course Ayatollah Khomeini. When he died, the post of Supreme Leader was given to Ayatollah Khamenei. Beneath the Supreme Leader stood the Council of Guardians, religious leaders who have the authority to reject laws as un-Islamic. This religious structure is the basis of the clergy’s control of the Iranian State. On the other side, the revolution also set up Western style political offices, which were directly elected. Most prominently this included the President and the Majlis, which has lawmaking power. Up till 1997, these elements of the government were in the hands of religious conservatives and worked in concert with the Supreme Leader and the Council of Guardians, both of which are unelected bodies.

Meanwhile, the people of Iran grew tired of the fiery rhetoric and demands of the religious conservatives. They fought cultural battles over art, satellite dishes, music, and debates over religious freedom. In 1997, the election for the Presidency brought a great surprise. A reform minded and liberal former culture minister, Mohammed Khatami, trounced the candidate of the establishment. His victory, with 70% of the vote, was a stunning rejection of the course of the Iranian revolution by its children. With a voting age of 16, the youth vote was overwhelmingly important and in favor of Khatami. In 1998, municipal elections confirmed this result with another 70% victory for reformers. But with a hostile Majlis, Khatami has been unable to do much of consequence. This year, the elections for the Majlis produced another stunning win for reformers and liberals. They took 70% of the seats including 29 out of 30 from Teheran. Many of Khatami’s most bitter foes lost their seats, and a significant number of women were elected.

The conservatives may be on the run at the ballot box, but they have not surrendered. Two years ago, there was a major scandal when it was revealed that the Interior Ministry had a secret group who was assassinating prominent liberal thinkers. The outgoing Majlis last month passed a harsh press law banning most of the liberal newspapers that are Khatami’s biggest supporters. And the Council of Guardians came close to invalidating the Majlis election results from Teheran with claims of “irregularities”, although Khameini finally forced them to accept the people’s verdict.

There is now a big collision brewing between the elected branches of government, which are firmly in the hands of reformers and liberals, and the conservatives who control the “Power Ministries” such as the police and the judiciary. If the Council of Guardians repeatedly blocks reform laws coming from the Majlis as “un-Islamic”, there is a real potential for explosion and civil strife in Iran. The key will be how Khameini plays his hand. If he throws in with the conservatives, the chance of all out struggle will be very high. If he decides to work with Khatami, then a gradual and successful reshaping of Iran might occur.

I am hopeful that in Iran we might see the first Muslim country work out what it means to be Muslim and modern, not just as an individual, but as a nation and society. So far, Muslim countries have either rejected Islam (Turkey, Tunisia, and Indonesia under Suharto), or they have rejected the modern world (Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, and Iran under Khomeini). For this reason, what happens in Iran in the next 18 months will be critical for the entire Muslim Ummah.