News
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
US worried about new government’s counterinsurgency abilities
* Experts believe that prospective govt is on collision course with Musharraf
By Khalid Hasan
WASHINGTON: The US apparently having moved away from President Pervez Musharraf, will now be mainly concerned with the effectiveness of Pakistan’s counterinsurgency operations in and near the border with Afghanistan. According to Teresita Schaffer and Jeffrey Ellis, writing in the current issue of South Asia Monitor, published by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, the budding Pakistan People’s Party-Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz coalition faces major challenges. The two are united in opposition to Musharraf, but they have been bitter enemies for decades. As long as they are working together in government, they will have to compete for patronage and influence, and Musharraf is likely to fan these flames. The agreement establishing their coalition also addressed two issues on which they disagreed, but implementing the decisions will bring new complications. The first is the question of the judges removed in November. Legal opinion is divided about what kind of action is required to restore the judges, and there could be a constitutional challenge from Musharraf’s post-November judicial appointees. The votes to repeal the constitutional amendments made by Musharraf during the emergency are not there at present for such a move, as the senate still has a pro-Musharraf majority and is not up for election until 2009. Collision course: Schaffer and Ellis believe that these moves put the prospective government on a collision course with Musharraf. The stage is set for an early test of whether Musharraf is prepared to accept a significant reduction of his powers in favour of an elected government. This will not come easily to this former general who accustomed to being in charge and devoted to the principle of “unity of command”. What can be expected is continued intrigue among four emerging power centres: a weakened President Musharraf; the PPP, where Zardari is likely to call the shots; the PML-N, with Nawaz as the major figure; and the army chief. This will be a difficult environment for policymaking. According to the two experts, the coalition faces major problems requiring policy decisions and political mobilisation. The new government will have to deal with wheat shortage, water management and power outages. The critical problem will be posed by militant violence. The PPP has been much more forthright than the PML-N in condemning suicide bombings and other extremist violence. Both parties have said that they want to get Pakistan out of the business of “treating our people like terrorists,” with the implication that they will seek to reach political agreements and de-emphasise the military response to these problems. The analysis goes on to say, “The Pakistani state has been the target of extremist violence in the past year. It will need wisdom, cleverness, and determination to reclaim its authority and restore security around the country. The new government will benefit from popular support and legitimacy, at least for a short period, as it develops its new approach. But it will inevitably be very preoccupied with maintaining itself in power and overcoming its built-in animosities. A difficult time lies ahead.”
Courtesy Daily Times