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Sunday, March 04, 2007
‘Next election offers no choice to the people of Pakistan’By Khalid Hasan
WASHINGTON: The 2007 election will offer no choice to the Pakistani voter since military governments do not change through elections.
Prof Hasan-Askari Rizvi, teaching at the Johns Hopkins University for a limited term on a fellowship, told a meeting on Friday that Gen Pervez Musharraf was holding elections to fulfil a constitutional obligation and strengthen his democratic credentials. Ironically, the elections will weaken the cause of democracy because of the restrictions placed on the two mainstream parties. Because of that, the post-2007 government will find itself more isolated than it is today unless it decides to accommodate the main opposition forces. The present strategy of “go it alone” is unwise. The ruling party is hoping that after its victory, there will be floor-crossings that will swell its ranks and in the process, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif will become irrelevant.
Prof Rizvi called this expectation “ambitious thinking” and a “risky agenda”. He said when the main political opposition found that it had no political future except on Musharraf’s terms, it could only come to the conclusion that it had no stake in the system. A large part of the electorate will thus stand alienated. He said the current National Assembly’s term and that of the president expired on November 15, and it was necessary under the Constitution to hold the presidential election between September 16 and October 15. Although the current National Assembly can elect the president for another term, exercising this option will be “bad politics”.
The opposition will have the option of going to court on legal and constitutional grounds. Musharraf, who plans to remain the army chief after the elections, will be the first army chief to contest an election. That is where the clash between his oath of office as an officer and his bid to seek public office will come in.
Armed forces’ personnel cannot seek public office or involve themselves in politics. While the Supreme Court legitimised Musharraf’s stay in office as president and army chief in 2000, it did not provide him a cover for all times to come. “So the question will arise: can Musharraf run for president while remaining army chief?” said the professor.
Rizvi said there were constitutional ambiguities that would need to be resolved. It is not clear if Musharraf can remain army chief after November 2007. If he quits, he is barred from seeking public office for a period of two years. There were many court judgments on that point, Rizvi added. Then there could be pitfalls in the constitution of the electoral college for the president. If one of the provincial assemblies is dissolved, the electoral college cannot be formed. If the government decides not to allow Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif to return, it will create a political vacuum.
If both of them return, they are capable of launching an agitation on the streets, which will upset the government’s game plan. He said another problem lay in the holding of free and fair elections. While the Election Commission has the authority and the powers to hold such elections, the opposition has no illusions that the commission will assert its powers. The situation in Pakistan could become like the situation in Bangladesh, he warned.
Rizvi said the military was Musharraf’s mainstay, but history showed that the Pakistani military had not permitted the continuance in office of an unpopular military or civilian government. While there is little likelihood of a coup while Musharraf remains strong and in control, in case he loses control, he could well be asked by his commanders to step down, as happened with Ayub and Yahya.
The Pakistan Army is a disciplined force and loyal to the office of the chief, not to an individual. The Pakistan Army did not support discredited governments, he stressed. Gen. Musharraf knows that, so do the politicians. Musharraf will therefore do his best to keep the political forces divided because if they come together, they could cause instability in the system he has cobbled together.
Courtesy DailyTimes.com.pkBack to Top