The Cost of War

While the war rhetoric in the Indo-Pak subcontinent has somewhat subsided, the tension and the military buildup on the borders still blight the South Asian scene. President Musharraf made a singular gesture of walking up to Mr. Vajpayee and offering a hand of friendship at the Katmandu SAARC meeting, yet the Indo-Pak subcontinent continues to bristle with tension. The General’s laudable act of extending a “hand of genuine friendship to Indian PM Vajpayee so both the countries commence a journey of peace, harmony, and progress” vividly demonstrates Pakistan’s willingness to go an extra mile in defusing tension. The result, however, has not been what the spontaneous applause accompanying General Musharraf’s utterance of “I extend a hand…” prompted. Indian political circles seem to spurn the offer and political commentators nonchalantly dismiss the Pakistan President’s gesture as a “public relations exercise.”

Commenting in The Hindu, C. Raja Mohan in an opinion piece entitled ‘Sparring at SAARC’, observed: “India was indeed expecting some move by the General and was prepared to respond quickly…. Having been outmaneuvered on the propaganda front at Agra, Mr. Vajpayee’s advisers were taking no chance this time around.” Indian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Nirupama Roy aptly articulated the Indian frostiness when she described General Musharraf’s well-meaning intents as a “grandstanding” and “theatrics for television.” Barely a few days ago, Indian Home Minister, L.K. Advani, had fretted and fumed as he observed, “We have had enough of talking, now it is time for action.”

Thus, while Pakistan continues to exercise restraint in the face of unrelenting Indian provocation, New Delhi appears hell-bent on exchanging blows. Its power corridors appear unmindful of the cost of the war, both for the victor and the vanquished, especially as the two countries are laced with nuclear weapons. Who does not know the immensity of destruction when nuclear bombs and missiles are lobbed leaving neither a victor nora vanquished? Regretfully, a veiled hint of using nuclear weapons has come from the Indian Prime Minister himself. Addressing an Arya Pratindhi Sammelan, Mr. Vajpayee warned that India will “use every weapon in self-defense, and if the enemy suffers in the bargain, we shall not be responsible for it.” Strange logic. Use of nuclear weapons in “self defense”! Devastation and misery in an area that is already scarred by multiple denominators of under-development and plagued by accompanying problems of poverty is hardly the course that the two South Asian neighbors should take.

A comment by an Indian observer seems to make the all-incisive point. “More than 260 million Indians live in abject poverty; a large middle-class is struggling to adjust to the market-friendly economic policies where consumption levels are being pushed up because of the demonstration effect even as jobs become scarce and, economic growth is inhibited by the lack of infrastructure and invisible resources. In such circumstances, the Indian economy can no doubt survive a war, but the sacrifices it will have to make in terms of development will be substantial….The limited localized action in Kargil in 1999 cost the country an extra Rs. 3,007 crores and this cost would be multiplied many times in case of an Indo-Pakistan war…. A war has other depressing effects. The overall mood of the nation gets low and this would impact on the stock markets which are known to react more to sentiment than to economic logic…” True. And it is this realization, coupled with an innately genuine desire on the part of Pakistan and the commando General Parvez Musharraf to assert: “Pakistan stands for peace. Pakistan wants peace….I am for dialogue. I keep repeating that I am for dialogue but Mr. Vajpayee does not want it. I hope that sanity will prevail.”

A no-nonsensical statement and a reiteration of Pakistan’s sincere desire to live in peace. India should be seized of this reality: should the situation spin out of control, both countries stand to lose. Pakistan alone will not be the sufferer if India does not rein in its adventurous impulse.

Pakistan does not want to go to war. Yet its armed forces and people have the will and resolve to defend the country’s frontiers - ideological as well as geographical. “We feel that the Indian government needs to pull back. If India violates Pakistan’s land, air or sea frontier, Pakistan will respond with all its might.” Major General Rashid Qureshi mirrored the nation’s resolve when he made this observation while addressing the press in Katmandu on January 4.

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